A Time For Choosing
On the political future of Kirk Menendez
Due to what my doctor describes as chronic progressive cynicism—a.k.a. getting old—I’ve all but lost the ability to trust human beings, particularly politicians, who I’m told are human beings despite my lingering doubts. My condition is so advanced that when a politician says “good morning,” my instinct is to reply with “what’s your angle?”
Which is why Kirk Menendez is such a blessing. No he hasn’t cured me. I’m not sure anything will. But he has served as a kind of palliative. You see, while I can’t trust Menendez, I can at least believe him. I can believe the easygoing camp-counselor demeanor, the aw-shucks self deprecation, the it’s-all-about-the-kids-and-old-folks schtick because, let’s face it, that’s who he’s always been. Menendez didn’t come to the commission with those few perfunctory years of community service that function as the formulaic prelude to a run for office, the man gave close to three decades of his life to the community, particularly to kids. You can’t fake your way through that.
It’s not that I think he’s a patron saint, even if he is as devout a catholic as many say. I mean, I genuinely admire honest faith, but there’s another ostentatiously pious catholic on the commission and I literally portrayed him as the devil in my last post, so there’s that. But civically, Menendez performs as advertised, reliably delivering on your capital-C community fare: parks, youth programs, support for local institutions, etc. Oh, and ice cream, lots of ice cream.
His disposition is even more on the nose. He has the patience and affability of a man who’s spent a lifetime coaching moody kids. He seeks consensus and places a high premium on rapport (or at least does a passable impression of someone who does) and is famously fond of cornball comic relief. Indeed, he could write the textbook on conflict avoidance, which isn’t surprising considering what I imagine were many years of keeping a bunch of Timmys and Sallys motivated when they weren’t getting enough playing time.
But I worry for him, for war is upon the commission and the dais is far too small to provide neutral ground. The new guard isn’t interested in torpid reform, they answer to the radicals—the Jacobins must have their revolution. One wonders, therefore, if Menendez has the temperament for the divisive, coalition-based, rough-and-tumble brand of politics that will likely define the next two years. How will a man so enamored of compromise and accommodation survive the zero-sum politics of the new era? Can he build the alliances that will be necessary to his political survival, and can he stomach having the enemies that such alliances will create? Can he check his apparent desire to be seen as a friend to all and thus avoid being seen as a friend to none?
I hope so, but I’m not entirely sure. A cursory glance at Menendez reveals a man who seems prepared to stand up to Ariel and Castro. After all, he endorsed their opponents and has voted against all their major items so far. But if you look closely, you’ll spot a trembling hand. I’m not only referring to the ill-advised photo-ops at Ariel and Castro’s victory parties, or taking communion with them, or any of the other almost obsequious examples of PDA. I’m talking about what Menendez does on the dais, where the rubber really meets the road.
On principles
Take the most recent battle over public comments, the one where Ariel, by way of Castro, attempted to strip Lago of his ability to limit public comment on discussion items. It was an absurd maneuver that if successful would have resulted in an unprecedented expansion of the public-comment portion of commission meetings in a city that already has one of the most generous public-comment policies in the state. It was also a thinly veiled attempt to sew chaos into meetings by allowing the usual suspects in the chambers to launch into tirades on a virtually unlimited menu of topics. But that’s just my take. Where Menendez stands on the issue is far more relevant, which brings me to this lovely little interview published in Coral Gables Magazine just last year:
Interviewer: You Have Suggested Creating Limits for Citizen Input at Commission Meetings. Why?
Menendez: What I do not want to see is the city’s hands tied so tightly that it cannot function. I would like to see government work responsibly [but] efficiently and effectively. It’s a balancing act, which is why I tend to end up in the middle of discussions. I find myself there because I want a government that responds, but not so bogged down that it cannot act.
You don’t say. You see, if Menendez weren’t so reluctant to piss off the new kids, he would have realized that the item was the perfect opportunity to mount an honest and effective defense of sincerely held beliefs, to bellow a proud and principled “No!” with the force of God’s own thunder. Instead, all we got from Menendez were several meek minutes of hemming and hawing and half-baked attempts at compromise. He looked almost forlorn when he eventually voted no.
But it’s not just Menendez’s principles that take a hit whenever he succumbs to his overdeveloped sense of diplomacy (as if compromised principles weren’t enough). It’s his very political future that suffers most.
On power
One could forgive Menendez for what I suspect is his fear of electoral retribution at the hands of Ariel and Castro’s supporters. After all, it would appear a great many of them wouldn’t mind seeing a guillotine installed in front of City Hall (I suspect we’ll soon see administrative heads rolling in any event). But as understandable as that fear might be, it is likely misplaced, and for several reasons.
Let’s deal first with the notion that Ariel and Castro’s supporters represent a new electoral majority. I’ve covered this in a prior post and so I won’t belabor the point except to say that Ariel and Castro won with the same 4,000 or so votes that their predecessors received in prior elections. Meanwhile, approximately 3,000 fewer votes were cast in total during the April election compared to 2021, and it’s probably safe to assume that those absentee voters were mostly Lago supporters. If math is a motivator here, then Menendez could be looking at the wrong side. The pendulum always swings back.
But even if I’m wrong about the numbers, there’s the issue of psychology, specifically the psychology at the core of Ariel and Castro’s base—a base that is nothing if not passionate (some would even say zealous). And while one can hope against hope, my guess is that short of actually kneecapping Lago on live TV, there is nothing Menendez can do to win back the “trust” of those voters. They despise him. He is persona non grata. He’s failed their religious purity test one too many times and there are no more retakes. Lest you think I’m overreaching, behold Gables Insider:
Ahhhh! Menendez- you supported their opponents!!
Have you no shame??? At least Anderson and Lago had the dignity not to ruin the party. You carpet bagger- we definitely want you out in 2 years – too late to change your stripes – no integrity- not a man of your word- just another pathetic politician who just is in it for himself and the power. Baños run run run in 2 years!!Menendez- have you no self respect? You supported Bucelo and Arango!!! And you show up at Melissa’s victory party!!! Talk about sleazy politicians. You go wherever the wind blows. Well you will be gone in 2 years pal. Your emails with free ice cream and movie announcements are like the old big city Mayors trying to buy off votes. You lied to us to get elected but you got your zoning changes to sell off your properties at a big profit.
Yeah, I agree, what is Menendez doing in the picture. He is not our friend, he is not for the people of C.G. He was supporting Lago and his cronies. He was critisizing both of you and campaigning for the “establishement” candidates. I hope you are not beginning to fold so earlly…
That’s just a skim off the top of the Gables Insider comments section just before it went into hibernation. And if there is anything reliable about three-punctuation-mark types, it’s that they never let go of a grudge. Never!!!
Besides, future candidate Javier Baños wouldn’t let them forget anyway—you just know he’s licking his lips right now.
Finally, there is the issue of the heart and soul of electoral politics—money. Sure, Ariel and Castro defeated opponents who drastically outraised them. But it wasn’t because they tapped into a grassroots magic so powerful it mooted the need for targeted messaging. It’s because they had something much more effective, yet much less expensive, than mailers, text messages, or robocalls. They had Gables Insider, a communications platform with a unique ability to inject populist and anti-establishment messaging straight into the veins of a base that was jonesing for it. Gables Insider isn’t likely to be around in two years, which means the ability to raise campaign funds will once again play a critical role in the next election. If Menendez has any intention of running for reelection, he should probably ask himself how helpful Ariel and Castro would be with raising money.
On the importance of being earnest
Before wrapping this up, I should address what many of you are probably thinking: why assume Menendez is troubled by any of this in the first place? Doesn’t this new dynamic give him massive leverage? Couldn’t what seems like equivocation actually be opportunism? Of course! Being the default swing vote in the middle of a political power struggle yields immense power. It’s a role many would covet, but it’s also an incredibly precarious one, especially on this commission. Anything short of complete loyalty to either side will earn him the contempt of both, and so you can rest assured that if Menendez attempts to shop his vote, he’ll find both sides looking to replace him with someone more reliable come reelection. A loyal soldier is preferable to a mercenary any day. Which means either way the calculus spits out the same result—Menendez will have to choose a side and stick with it. I think he’s smart enough to see that. And I think he’s smart enough to make the right choice. It certainly isn’t a hard one. It’s a choice between chaos and order, zealotry and reason, expediency and principle. Most of all, it’s a choice between having a political future and not.
Perhaps Menendez relishes his newfound importance, or perhaps he’s already wistful for the peace and serenity of yesteryear. It doesn’t matter, the days of Commissioner Dad Joke are over whether he likes it or not. It all brings to mind the ominous warning of a man who knew a thing or two about political conflict—you may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.